The prospect of Obama winning Tuesday’s election is very real. US and even Canadian newspapers this weekend are full of commentary about the election and most focus on what an Obama presidency will mean. Not surprisingly, conservatives are fearful, liberals wary but hopeful, and those at the poles are as hysterical as always. I strongly believe Obama is the right choice for the United States; not just because he offers better solutions than John McCain, but because he’s the most inspiring and capable politician the US has produced since Bill Clinton – who just happened to be the only successful president since Eisenhower.
What marks a successful presidency? Indeed the markers are different depending on your political outlook. All want prosperity but conservatives are less concerned with the shared distribution of prosperity (sounds too much like socialism even if the wealth is created through capitalism and the result is more people are happy). Both want an effective foreign policy but liberals are less concerned with enforcing an American vision of the world; instead focusing on results that help others in addition to protecting American interests – whether they be achieved multilaterally or independently. Of course, domestic political support is essential, though the Democrats show a greater concern for the impacts on the nation’s fabric than have the Republicans under Gingrich, Rove and now as guided by the voice of Sarah Palin. Partisanship has been an effective tool for Republicans but has also created destructive schisms within the American public whether they are religious, urban/rural, geographic, or by class.
What do I expect from Barack Obama? How will he be successful?
On the economy, it’s Obama’s pledge to return some balance to the tax burden by alleviating the strain on the middle-class that will pay the largest dividends for the US. It will be quite awhile before spending can be brought under control and budgets balanced. It was an extraordinary feat when Clinton did it and will be as extraordinary if Obama manages it. It’s too bad the effort has to be repeated. The greatest domestic challenge will be providing a stable energy supply between the horns of a dilemma: climate change and a dependency on a declining oil supply. Obama’s willingness to work with others will bear more fruit for the US than the simplistic “drill baby drill” views of Republicans.
Obama’s promise to change Washington politics into a less partisan and more collaborative environment seems more plausible now than it did when he first made the claim. I expect the Republican enterprise to struggle for awhile, thereby opening the door for compromise far more than would have been expected if the Republicans had finished this election strong. While some will charge that McCain’s moderate nature hurt them, the reality is that in the end McCain ran as partisan a campaign as ever and it will be rejected by voters. If the result is that the hyper-partisan leaders within the party are shunted to the side, Obama will face a far more open Republican caucus than Clinton did, which bodes well for everyone.
Foreign policy is the area that will see the most amount of change. Obama will get out of Iraq, eventually, but will also step up their presence in Afghanistan. But the result of this will be greater international support for their actions. Further, Obama’s willingness to engage his enemies will help reduce the future potential for warfare – it won’t eliminate it, but it’s a start to more diplomacy and less conflict. So look for greater US engagement through NATO and the UN – which by the way will help Canada as those are the best places for us to influence international behaviour.
In Canada, some seem concerned that Obama will harm us with a supposed anti-free trade approach. These assumptions are based on comments made by Obama during the primaries that NAFTA should be renegotiated, though he later softened his comments. Under the headline, “Trade Policy That Works for All People in All Countries,” his website states, “Obama and Biden believe that trade with foreign nations should strengthen the American economy and create more American jobs. They will stand firm against agreements that undermine our economic security and will use trade agreements to spread good labor and environmental standards around the world.” This sounds like something any leader would say about their trade policy, and is so generic that any meaning could be placed against it. Protectionism? Maybe. But let’s not ignore but give credence to Obama’s intelligence. He’s not going to preach engagement with his enemies and then antagonize his allies. He’s going to try and stop the exportation of American jobs, not the importation of Canadian products. Obama will be good for Canada because he is open, engaging and pragmatic. For Canada, rebuilding the US economy will help us far more than any ill incurred through the renegotiation of NAFTA. Removing the Republicans is the first step to fixing the US economy, and that alone makes Obama a plus for Canada.
The last things I’d like to comment on are race and hope. For both, Obama carries considerable expectations. Race will be a factor but not a deciding one. Those who will not vote for a black man are most likely already concentrated in areas that are already Republican – i.e. the rural south and Midwest. Yes, it’s likely to happen in cities and the north but not to a degree that will change the outcome of those areas. I also look for greater turnout among blacks, who overwhelmingly support Obama, to alleviate any anti-black impacts. There are likely to be continued discussions of race and small groups who will continue to antagonize against a black president, but ultimately this is a critical and large step for America towards healing its race issues. It’s not the end, but it’s a significant step forward.
And yes, there will be an inevitable letdown in the early going because, since democracy is slow and messy and the US’ problems are large and widespread, Obama will not be able to instantly transform his promises into reality. I can only hope that the hope Obama has engendered is not quickly extinguished. If there is any risk to Obama’s long term prospects this may be it. He’s already changed his language over the past two months to be less grandiose and more pragmatic, but it will be a challenge for him to manage expectations through his first years in office. Clinton failed in his first two years on this score and Obama would be wise to learn from the last Democratic president’s experience.
This is an exciting time for America politically and, if there’s one ray of solace for Canadian progressives, it’s that Harper’s conservative agenda may have to be tempered in the face of a more progressive American presidency. Obama has been touted as transformational not just for America but also for the world, and I agree. Canadians should fear not in Obama (and polls show we do not), and Americans can turn the corner from the failed ideologies of the Republican Party.
What marks a successful presidency? Indeed the markers are different depending on your political outlook. All want prosperity but conservatives are less concerned with the shared distribution of prosperity (sounds too much like socialism even if the wealth is created through capitalism and the result is more people are happy). Both want an effective foreign policy but liberals are less concerned with enforcing an American vision of the world; instead focusing on results that help others in addition to protecting American interests – whether they be achieved multilaterally or independently. Of course, domestic political support is essential, though the Democrats show a greater concern for the impacts on the nation’s fabric than have the Republicans under Gingrich, Rove and now as guided by the voice of Sarah Palin. Partisanship has been an effective tool for Republicans but has also created destructive schisms within the American public whether they are religious, urban/rural, geographic, or by class.
What do I expect from Barack Obama? How will he be successful?
On the economy, it’s Obama’s pledge to return some balance to the tax burden by alleviating the strain on the middle-class that will pay the largest dividends for the US. It will be quite awhile before spending can be brought under control and budgets balanced. It was an extraordinary feat when Clinton did it and will be as extraordinary if Obama manages it. It’s too bad the effort has to be repeated. The greatest domestic challenge will be providing a stable energy supply between the horns of a dilemma: climate change and a dependency on a declining oil supply. Obama’s willingness to work with others will bear more fruit for the US than the simplistic “drill baby drill” views of Republicans.
Obama’s promise to change Washington politics into a less partisan and more collaborative environment seems more plausible now than it did when he first made the claim. I expect the Republican enterprise to struggle for awhile, thereby opening the door for compromise far more than would have been expected if the Republicans had finished this election strong. While some will charge that McCain’s moderate nature hurt them, the reality is that in the end McCain ran as partisan a campaign as ever and it will be rejected by voters. If the result is that the hyper-partisan leaders within the party are shunted to the side, Obama will face a far more open Republican caucus than Clinton did, which bodes well for everyone.
Foreign policy is the area that will see the most amount of change. Obama will get out of Iraq, eventually, but will also step up their presence in Afghanistan. But the result of this will be greater international support for their actions. Further, Obama’s willingness to engage his enemies will help reduce the future potential for warfare – it won’t eliminate it, but it’s a start to more diplomacy and less conflict. So look for greater US engagement through NATO and the UN – which by the way will help Canada as those are the best places for us to influence international behaviour.
In Canada, some seem concerned that Obama will harm us with a supposed anti-free trade approach. These assumptions are based on comments made by Obama during the primaries that NAFTA should be renegotiated, though he later softened his comments. Under the headline, “Trade Policy That Works for All People in All Countries,” his website states, “Obama and Biden believe that trade with foreign nations should strengthen the American economy and create more American jobs. They will stand firm against agreements that undermine our economic security and will use trade agreements to spread good labor and environmental standards around the world.” This sounds like something any leader would say about their trade policy, and is so generic that any meaning could be placed against it. Protectionism? Maybe. But let’s not ignore but give credence to Obama’s intelligence. He’s not going to preach engagement with his enemies and then antagonize his allies. He’s going to try and stop the exportation of American jobs, not the importation of Canadian products. Obama will be good for Canada because he is open, engaging and pragmatic. For Canada, rebuilding the US economy will help us far more than any ill incurred through the renegotiation of NAFTA. Removing the Republicans is the first step to fixing the US economy, and that alone makes Obama a plus for Canada.
The last things I’d like to comment on are race and hope. For both, Obama carries considerable expectations. Race will be a factor but not a deciding one. Those who will not vote for a black man are most likely already concentrated in areas that are already Republican – i.e. the rural south and Midwest. Yes, it’s likely to happen in cities and the north but not to a degree that will change the outcome of those areas. I also look for greater turnout among blacks, who overwhelmingly support Obama, to alleviate any anti-black impacts. There are likely to be continued discussions of race and small groups who will continue to antagonize against a black president, but ultimately this is a critical and large step for America towards healing its race issues. It’s not the end, but it’s a significant step forward.
And yes, there will be an inevitable letdown in the early going because, since democracy is slow and messy and the US’ problems are large and widespread, Obama will not be able to instantly transform his promises into reality. I can only hope that the hope Obama has engendered is not quickly extinguished. If there is any risk to Obama’s long term prospects this may be it. He’s already changed his language over the past two months to be less grandiose and more pragmatic, but it will be a challenge for him to manage expectations through his first years in office. Clinton failed in his first two years on this score and Obama would be wise to learn from the last Democratic president’s experience.
This is an exciting time for America politically and, if there’s one ray of solace for Canadian progressives, it’s that Harper’s conservative agenda may have to be tempered in the face of a more progressive American presidency. Obama has been touted as transformational not just for America but also for the world, and I agree. Canadians should fear not in Obama (and polls show we do not), and Americans can turn the corner from the failed ideologies of the Republican Party.
1 comments:
You are right that Republicans are fearful. And Arnold the Terminator in endorsing McCain fall back to usual Republican style of fear mongering. Claiming reducing taxes to low income and raising taxes to wealthy would be very bad for the economy. He claim he left Europe because socialism was destroying it.
Oh no the socialist are marching in. lol.
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