Making sense of the last six days is not an easy task, and certainly everyone has an opinion - regardless of bias or knowledge. Understanding why we're here requires a brief look at history and a review of the options facing the opposition parties. Understanding where we're going is not possible until the Governor General gets involved and Harper makes his move, but looking at both their options and the various consequences shows some choices are more palatable than others.
Why this happened...
Quite simply, the style of leadership and the political tactics of Stephen Harper and the Conservative Party brought us to this point. I have pointed out in the past that Harper's constant employment of confidence votes in the last parliament was a corruption of parliament and served only to bully the opposition parties - and namely the Liberals - for both legislative and partisan gain. In the end Harper got most of what he wanted with an increase in seats in the last election and a discredited Liberal leader in front of a wounded party.
After blaming the disfunction of the last parliament on the opposition and then offering a more conciliatory tone for the new parliament, Harper unveiled right out of the gate his boldest challenge yet. The economic update was easily his most partisan and ideological moment since becoming Prime Minister. First, the economic update offered a completely skewed forecast that lacked credibility, raising the concern of incompetence or at the very least a disingenuous tone with the Canadian people at a time when honesty and forthrightness are needed. Whether stimulus is needed or not can be debated, but the entire update was a farce that begged the question of why the Conservatives even bothered with it. Their contortions to try and forecast surpluses after acknowledging the likelihood and even need for, and then gaining public acceptance of, deficits is truly puzzling. It's only the tip of the iceberg in terms of their ideologically skewed vision. The stripping of the rights for public servants to strike was a purely ideological and spiteful move that cried out for opposition. And finally, indeed, the proposed removal of the public funding for parties, which all of the opposition parties so desperately require at this point in time, was the final straw. This tactic was bullying, partisanship, and a threat to the opposition parties that went far beyond manipulating a legislative agenda. It's bad enough for a bully to publicly ridicule you, force uncomfortable, contrary and embarrassing behaviour from you, and then benefit from it at your expense - all of those things have been hard enough for the opposition and most especially for the Liberals to endure; but when things get escalated to a direct threat on your life (politically speaking), then whether you're prepared, able or even willing to fight back, fight back you must. Therefore the economic update has to be voted down or else all pretense of an opposition and all hope for a balanced governance of Canada will be lost.
Why a coalition?
I didn't think the coalition was worth considering when it first surfaced last week, but in retrospect it was almost the only option. Since the economic update is a confidence vote - and for once a legitimate one - then voting it down raises consequences in which the opposition have to contend. An election is easily the most undesirable option for everyone involved for financial, practical and emotional reasons. Most of the parties aren't financed to go at it again, it's not likely to change the parliamentary landscape significantly enough, the Liberals are choosing a new leader, and quite simply everyone is tired from the last election and doesn't want to go through it again. So if you don't want an election the only other option is to propose an alternative government, which by practical necessity requires a coalition since no one party could garner enough support from the others. So voila, a coalition, against innumerable odds, was born.
Is the coalition viable?
I think for the time it needs to exist, yes. I don't see it lasting two years, especially with a new Liberal leader on board (and potentially as the sitting PM) come May. The pressure for an election will be fierce and will likely trigger a dropping of the writ in the fall. If the coalition can focus on the economy only and stay as quiet as possible on all other fronts then it's likely they can stay on their common ground long enough. They will have continue to talk and act like they're in it for the long haul, but realistically things are going to be taken one day or week at a time at best - and given the tumult of the economy that might not be a bad thing. Of course, land mines dot the course; most notably from the pressure of interest groups behind the NDP and Bloc who will want to take advantage of their leverage and push labour or sovereigntist-friendly agendas. It will be a testament to Layton and Duceppe if they can keep their hounds at bay.
A brief note on the stigma of working with the Bloc Quebecois. A cost for the NDP and Liberals will be the separatist aura that will cling to them for awhile during and after the coalition. The Bloc have proven to be capable and responsible members of parliament in areas outside of the sovereignty question, so there's potential to work with them without conceding too much on matters of provincial jurisdiction. The Bloc represent a significant portion of Canadians and we cannot ignore them. I always prefer engagement over confrontation so I hope there's a silver lining in this. If the federalists suffer outside of Quebec from working with the Bloc, then it's likely the Bloc will suffer from having worked with federalists. These competing consequences may cancel out but more likely will undermine the Bloc as the voice of sovereignty. The real threat is the bump the Conservatives will receive for not working with the Bloc, regardless of past overtures they may have made in other circumstances. The only way to combat this will be for the coalition to perform well as a government. In the end, that will be the biggest determinant of whether the coalition survives.
Harper's Options
The Prime Minister has certainly boxed himself in, hasn't he? I can't see him proroguing parliament because the hit in credibility would be severe and there's not enough impetus or precedent for the Governor General to support that option. His other option is to make his biggest reversal yet, and he's had many, and open up talks with the opposition about formulating a stimulus package. It's the only source of air left in the coalition's balloon and will make many Canadians happy to see parliament working the way it should. If Harper goes this route he's a bigger man than I'll give him credit for, so I'm not holding my breath. Would the coalition accept such an olive branch at this point? I think there's a glimmer of hope but it's more likely the coalition plan is beyond the point of no return. Layton has that crazy "man on a mission" look in his eye and Dion must feel like the geek on the beach getting to kick sand back in the bully's face. Given my analysis above as to why the opposition has finally said "enough," I think there's a real feeling that this opportunity - ill timed as it is - must be used to run Harper out of town. So, what we're left with is Harper pushing the election option with the massive PR campaign that started today. My only hope is that if he succeeds voters remember their anger for his creation of the poisoned atmosphere in Ottawa and that when they needed him most, he chose to push his personal profit over the benefit of all Canadians.
Governor General's Options
You have to feel for Michaelle Jean and the situation she is in. As I mentioned above I don't think there's enough precedent and impetus to suspend the government at this time - rescuing the PM is not in her job description. I think the odds between granting an election and accepting the coalition are even. The election is unpalatable given the proximity to the last one, but it's a legitimate argument to let Canadians decide who should win this battle. On the other side our Westminster parliament expressly offers the coalition option and she must give it a fair hearing. If she is convinced the coalition is real and adequately prepared, then it's within reason to see her leaning that way. But the preparedness of the coalition has to be, by the reality of the situation, weak. This raises the risks on this option which is why I see it as being equal to the election. Both options include concern over the Liberals transient leader situation, but Dion is an experienced parliamentarian and the legitimate leader of the party until May, so Jean is unlikely to factor that into her decision.
My favourite option for the Governor General is to say no to all of the above and send everyone back to work things out. In the same way a judge sends a jury back for another try before conceding a hung jury, Jean should tell Harper to grow up and work with the opposition, and tell Dion, Layton and Duceppe to give him one chance to fix this mess. Whether such a move would have a lasting effect on Harper is questionable, but at least it will buy us some time to deal with the economy and make an election more palatable should the minority parliament fail once again. If Jean can't save the PM, she can at least try to save everyone and reorient the parties back to solving the financial crisis.
Consequences for the Liberals
There will be costs for the Liberals but they can be paid down over time - just how much time will depend on the success of the new leader. Strengthening Layton and the NDP and working with the Bloc will only serve to harm the potential for the Liberals to break free of the pack. This won't get the NDP or Bloc into power, but it will keep them in the game for much longer. Also, if initial public reaction is any indication, there will need to be some rebuilding of trust with the electorate after having taken over the government (regardless of the constitutional legitimacy of having done so). If the task of leading the Liberals seemed daunting before, it's even more so now. If the Liberals want any modicum of relative electoral success in the near future the coalition must succeed and the new leader must outperform Layton and Harper after May. And oh yeah, Dion needs to get us to the new leader in the meantime which is not impossible but certainly a questionable prospect given his recent performance.
The coalition is an exciting gamble, but like all gambles there are considerable risks and rewards. If we believe in the Liberal Party and liberal values, then we have to believe the strength of the party will triumph and the costs of the coalition will be successfully carried and overcome. The costs of allowing Harper to continue his partisan and ideological agenda are too severe. I, for one, am willing to get on board and see this gamble through to a positive pay-off for all of Canada.
Why this happened...
Quite simply, the style of leadership and the political tactics of Stephen Harper and the Conservative Party brought us to this point. I have pointed out in the past that Harper's constant employment of confidence votes in the last parliament was a corruption of parliament and served only to bully the opposition parties - and namely the Liberals - for both legislative and partisan gain. In the end Harper got most of what he wanted with an increase in seats in the last election and a discredited Liberal leader in front of a wounded party.
After blaming the disfunction of the last parliament on the opposition and then offering a more conciliatory tone for the new parliament, Harper unveiled right out of the gate his boldest challenge yet. The economic update was easily his most partisan and ideological moment since becoming Prime Minister. First, the economic update offered a completely skewed forecast that lacked credibility, raising the concern of incompetence or at the very least a disingenuous tone with the Canadian people at a time when honesty and forthrightness are needed. Whether stimulus is needed or not can be debated, but the entire update was a farce that begged the question of why the Conservatives even bothered with it. Their contortions to try and forecast surpluses after acknowledging the likelihood and even need for, and then gaining public acceptance of, deficits is truly puzzling. It's only the tip of the iceberg in terms of their ideologically skewed vision. The stripping of the rights for public servants to strike was a purely ideological and spiteful move that cried out for opposition. And finally, indeed, the proposed removal of the public funding for parties, which all of the opposition parties so desperately require at this point in time, was the final straw. This tactic was bullying, partisanship, and a threat to the opposition parties that went far beyond manipulating a legislative agenda. It's bad enough for a bully to publicly ridicule you, force uncomfortable, contrary and embarrassing behaviour from you, and then benefit from it at your expense - all of those things have been hard enough for the opposition and most especially for the Liberals to endure; but when things get escalated to a direct threat on your life (politically speaking), then whether you're prepared, able or even willing to fight back, fight back you must. Therefore the economic update has to be voted down or else all pretense of an opposition and all hope for a balanced governance of Canada will be lost.
Why a coalition?
I didn't think the coalition was worth considering when it first surfaced last week, but in retrospect it was almost the only option. Since the economic update is a confidence vote - and for once a legitimate one - then voting it down raises consequences in which the opposition have to contend. An election is easily the most undesirable option for everyone involved for financial, practical and emotional reasons. Most of the parties aren't financed to go at it again, it's not likely to change the parliamentary landscape significantly enough, the Liberals are choosing a new leader, and quite simply everyone is tired from the last election and doesn't want to go through it again. So if you don't want an election the only other option is to propose an alternative government, which by practical necessity requires a coalition since no one party could garner enough support from the others. So voila, a coalition, against innumerable odds, was born.
Is the coalition viable?
I think for the time it needs to exist, yes. I don't see it lasting two years, especially with a new Liberal leader on board (and potentially as the sitting PM) come May. The pressure for an election will be fierce and will likely trigger a dropping of the writ in the fall. If the coalition can focus on the economy only and stay as quiet as possible on all other fronts then it's likely they can stay on their common ground long enough. They will have continue to talk and act like they're in it for the long haul, but realistically things are going to be taken one day or week at a time at best - and given the tumult of the economy that might not be a bad thing. Of course, land mines dot the course; most notably from the pressure of interest groups behind the NDP and Bloc who will want to take advantage of their leverage and push labour or sovereigntist-friendly agendas. It will be a testament to Layton and Duceppe if they can keep their hounds at bay.
A brief note on the stigma of working with the Bloc Quebecois. A cost for the NDP and Liberals will be the separatist aura that will cling to them for awhile during and after the coalition. The Bloc have proven to be capable and responsible members of parliament in areas outside of the sovereignty question, so there's potential to work with them without conceding too much on matters of provincial jurisdiction. The Bloc represent a significant portion of Canadians and we cannot ignore them. I always prefer engagement over confrontation so I hope there's a silver lining in this. If the federalists suffer outside of Quebec from working with the Bloc, then it's likely the Bloc will suffer from having worked with federalists. These competing consequences may cancel out but more likely will undermine the Bloc as the voice of sovereignty. The real threat is the bump the Conservatives will receive for not working with the Bloc, regardless of past overtures they may have made in other circumstances. The only way to combat this will be for the coalition to perform well as a government. In the end, that will be the biggest determinant of whether the coalition survives.
Harper's Options
The Prime Minister has certainly boxed himself in, hasn't he? I can't see him proroguing parliament because the hit in credibility would be severe and there's not enough impetus or precedent for the Governor General to support that option. His other option is to make his biggest reversal yet, and he's had many, and open up talks with the opposition about formulating a stimulus package. It's the only source of air left in the coalition's balloon and will make many Canadians happy to see parliament working the way it should. If Harper goes this route he's a bigger man than I'll give him credit for, so I'm not holding my breath. Would the coalition accept such an olive branch at this point? I think there's a glimmer of hope but it's more likely the coalition plan is beyond the point of no return. Layton has that crazy "man on a mission" look in his eye and Dion must feel like the geek on the beach getting to kick sand back in the bully's face. Given my analysis above as to why the opposition has finally said "enough," I think there's a real feeling that this opportunity - ill timed as it is - must be used to run Harper out of town. So, what we're left with is Harper pushing the election option with the massive PR campaign that started today. My only hope is that if he succeeds voters remember their anger for his creation of the poisoned atmosphere in Ottawa and that when they needed him most, he chose to push his personal profit over the benefit of all Canadians.
Governor General's Options
You have to feel for Michaelle Jean and the situation she is in. As I mentioned above I don't think there's enough precedent and impetus to suspend the government at this time - rescuing the PM is not in her job description. I think the odds between granting an election and accepting the coalition are even. The election is unpalatable given the proximity to the last one, but it's a legitimate argument to let Canadians decide who should win this battle. On the other side our Westminster parliament expressly offers the coalition option and she must give it a fair hearing. If she is convinced the coalition is real and adequately prepared, then it's within reason to see her leaning that way. But the preparedness of the coalition has to be, by the reality of the situation, weak. This raises the risks on this option which is why I see it as being equal to the election. Both options include concern over the Liberals transient leader situation, but Dion is an experienced parliamentarian and the legitimate leader of the party until May, so Jean is unlikely to factor that into her decision.
My favourite option for the Governor General is to say no to all of the above and send everyone back to work things out. In the same way a judge sends a jury back for another try before conceding a hung jury, Jean should tell Harper to grow up and work with the opposition, and tell Dion, Layton and Duceppe to give him one chance to fix this mess. Whether such a move would have a lasting effect on Harper is questionable, but at least it will buy us some time to deal with the economy and make an election more palatable should the minority parliament fail once again. If Jean can't save the PM, she can at least try to save everyone and reorient the parties back to solving the financial crisis.
Consequences for the Liberals
There will be costs for the Liberals but they can be paid down over time - just how much time will depend on the success of the new leader. Strengthening Layton and the NDP and working with the Bloc will only serve to harm the potential for the Liberals to break free of the pack. This won't get the NDP or Bloc into power, but it will keep them in the game for much longer. Also, if initial public reaction is any indication, there will need to be some rebuilding of trust with the electorate after having taken over the government (regardless of the constitutional legitimacy of having done so). If the task of leading the Liberals seemed daunting before, it's even more so now. If the Liberals want any modicum of relative electoral success in the near future the coalition must succeed and the new leader must outperform Layton and Harper after May. And oh yeah, Dion needs to get us to the new leader in the meantime which is not impossible but certainly a questionable prospect given his recent performance.
The coalition is an exciting gamble, but like all gambles there are considerable risks and rewards. If we believe in the Liberal Party and liberal values, then we have to believe the strength of the party will triumph and the costs of the coalition will be successfully carried and overcome. The costs of allowing Harper to continue his partisan and ideological agenda are too severe. I, for one, am willing to get on board and see this gamble through to a positive pay-off for all of Canada.
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